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Karl Denninger is an extremely gifted investor, businessman and technologist.  When he speaks about the economy I listen.  His latest video issues a dire warning to Americans.  I believe everything he has said is correct and aligns with projections I’ve made in the past.  Please give his video a view and consider the implications of this irresponsible monetary policy.

I would like to pose an important societal question to any banker that is willing to answer it:

Why are bankers increasingly hesitant to lend, even drawing back lines of credit, yet at the same time allocating a lot of funds in to commodities, especially oil?

Isn’t it true that oil and consumer consumption are closely correlated?

Are they seeing something that I am not or is this a bit of a logical paradox?  How can the banks create the growth they need for their trade (or investment) to be profitable if they refuse to lend to those that would spend it on consumables?

There has to be more than just dollar weakness factored in to this equation.

There are no shortage of credit problems to navigate through with mortgages (both subprime and now prime), credit cards and commercial lending, potentially indicative of a deflationary credit squeeze for the everyday person who will no longer be able to borrow to buy everything based off their future earnings or assets.  This contraction could also have very negative effects on small business growth and hiring, too.

It’s because consumers and small businesses account for the majority of the US economy that I think we are wise maintain a defensive posture as most of the multi-month rally’s asset allocation haven’t taken this matter in to focus yet.  I believe we are well out of bounds of realistic equity valuations and the dollar is being sacrificed by the printing press of the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Congress to temporarily support financial markets.

Once this liquidity flood induced euphoria wears off there will be severe consequences to the US currency, bond and equity markets that most investors don’t seem to be aware of or have not positioned themselves for.

Sources:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/KeyCharts/Credit-y-o-y-large.png

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/09/consumer-credit-freefall.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/troubles-shift-to-prime-borrowers-wsj-2009-09-04

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2009/09/mortgage_market.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0829660420090909

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE58752720090908

At this point there is some distortion between energy and metals which have a direct relationship as energy must be expended to mine the metals. usually the ratio is 10x the price of a barrel of oil for an ounce of gold, but now it’s been in a range of 12.5x-15x.

Either oil is very undervalued (which is unlikely) or gold is overbought at these levels.

Today’s close of the stock markets and oil seems to indicative of a risk repricing that began last week.

960 (around the 50 day moving average) on the S&P 500 and $65 a barrel on light sweet crude are my downside targets short term, but if either breaks we could trade to much lower support levels.

In addition, when examining the huge sell off in natural gas prices, it’s near certain that energy has more negative catalysts than positive because industrial utilization continues to lag despite the green shoots propaganda that we keep hearing.

Finally, there are a growing number of bears calling for a shake out of March’s lows coming this fall because of a new leg down in commercial real estate that will bleed liquidity out of the equity markets and REITs.

With deflation continuing despite long-term zero interest rate policy, how does the new Japanese government plan to expand its efforts to revive economic growth and lower unemployment?

Is this our future?

Japan paints a very sobering picture of what the future of the United States may be facing in the future should this loose monetary policy continue unabated. Zombie banks, real estate bubbles, deflation and stock market collapses are all themes very familiar to the Japanese economy in the 1990s.

Unfortunately the circumstances are all too similar here at home. Adding to that Japan also has a large aging population that will soon outnumber its workers, akin to the situation we face in the United States. All of these reasons and more are why it’s important to pay attention to where the Japanese economy is heading.

Severe economic routs have no easy cure

Every time a massive speculative bubble implodes it leaves behind a tremendous amount of credit destruction, which in turn absorbs liquidity and pressures equities, corporate bonds and derivatives like credit default swaps. All of these circumstances potentially create deflationary forces that can shrink the capital base of a country and even create a banking panic. After all, debt is money in many modern economies. As that monetary base shrinks each unit becomes more valuable.

Mitigating the risk of severe economic contraction requires an innovative and careful approach to the underlying cause with attention to stimulating the next catalyst. Green energy is one of many appropriate catalysts for a non-speculative sustainable global economic evolution. Others include technology, infrastructure, education and health system improvements.

Japan must lead or become obsolete

For many years Japan has enjoyed the status of second biggest economy in the world, but that status is quickly fading as Japan’s export-based economy contracts in the face of a global recession and slumping industrial production.

The new government in Japan has an opportunity to reverse policy mistakes of the previous ruling party and create a sustainable economic model that is more focused on durable growth rather than speculation. This would prove to be a model for the rest of Asia if Japan can take the lead.

If Japan’s economy can not evolve and take the next step forward, China and other neighbors will gobble up the industrial production for exports that was once taken for granted.

The Chinese sell-off seems to be spreading as US markets are experiencing profit taking bringing them below 1000 on the S&P 500 and leaving them oversold by many short term technical indicators.

What’s next?

My forecast isn’t too optimistic given the convergence of many different economic complications. I think that the risk remains very high that the market faces a significant correction given the irrationally optimistic rally we’ve experienced since the March apocalyptic head-fake.

Real world valuations simply don’t match stock prices and future profits are not going to come from anything more than further cost cutting. The picture being painted is anything but rosy.

Add to that a looming commercial real estate crisis, a bankrupt government and an FDIC that’s running out of insurance for depositors as banks continue to fail.

What happens when the next shoe drops?

Consider this: We’ve had a jobless recovery and everyone is optimistic. People feel like the worst is behind us, yet unemployment remains remarkably high. Then, the unexpected. Another economic meltdown.

If we were to go in to a downward economic cycle and reenter recession here after this artificially orchestrated ‘recovery’ the devastation would be deep and pronounced. Unemployment could rise exponentially as commercial real estate implodes, forcing malls to shutter and tens of millions of Americans out of work.

The materialism capital of the world

The United States has 600% more malls than any other country on Earth. Our economy is very consumer driven, yet right now the consumer is so leveraged in to debt they can’t afford to spend much. This is a broken and unsustainable model that will continue to eat away at our economic core until we see a more sustainable (and modest) implementation of capitalism.

Because the economy is consumer driven and because consumers can not spend we have a conundrum that bank bail outs can not solve. How do you engender an era of confident spending by selling off the average consumer’s future with gigantic amounts of debt that in no way benefits the debt holder? Certainly there has to be a better way.

The real crisis is coming

It is my opinion that we have yet to experience the true crisis that will manifest out of the past few decades of reckless unimaginable greed. No amount of reflationary policy can adequately combat the implosion of credit capital that has drained liquidity and forcibly deleveraged the global financial system.

The only success the government can claim here is that they have temporarily staved off this crisis by sacrificing the fiscal solvency of the Treasury. Ultimately the United States is the most indebted country across its respective private citizens, corporations and governments. This national debt costs the country $500,000,000 per day in interest.

The national debt is largely owned by foreign countries like China, Japan, UK, Russia, Saudi Arabia and others. Does this sound like a sustainable plan for the future of our country? Can we truly continue to borrow our way out of crises we’ve created by ignoring our looming debt and anything resembling fiscal responsibility?

This is traditionally a light volume week with little trading and low volatility. Nominally the last few days have been pretty flat compared to past trading weeks. I think we’ll see things pick up again after labor day. We’re still quite overbought and due for a pullback, perhaps to the 50 day moving average around 950 on the S&P 500.

Now that the equity markets around the world have rallied about 50% or more it seems that interest rates have heightened around the world as well. In the US 10 year bonds were as low as 2% in March and now have neared 4%.

If home owners need to refinance their mortgages to lower rates, but those rates are no longer available how can we have a sustainable recovery in housing (which is always a driver behind economic recoveries here)? Doesn’t this lack of available credit and affordable interest rates undermine the recovery efforts?

In addition, with many bright minds believing China was the key to the recovery how does China’s correction affect the views of equity investors? Is the global rally in question?

It looks like safe haven assets like bonds, yen and dollars are becoming more attractive vs. risky assets like commodity currencies, commodities, equities and emerging markets in general.

I think we may be entering the next leg down as Mohamed El-Erian and others have expressed the same sentiment I have. The rally is running on fumes.

We probably will retest the lows in the market and bring some fear back in to the trading. VIX is up 6%+ today and we’re seeing a lot more put buying as institutions either bet against or insure profits in stocks.

Consumer sentiment was terrible and there is now some question as to whether the FDIC is solvent after taking over Colonial Bank. All the Maes are probably completely toxic now, too. I hope foreign central banks continue their generosity or the falloff here could become a disaster.

Every day more light is shed in the dark corners of our banking system.  Today I thought I’d share this tid bit.  While Americans lose their jobs, houses and ability to sustain themselves the Federal Reserve was busy handing out $500B in “currency swaps” to 14 foreign central banks all over the world. Watch the following clip and judge for yourself the kind of message that’s being conveyed:

Everyone is welcome to correct me if I’m wrong here, but I was under the impression that the Federal Reserve had a mandate to maintain stable employment and fight inflation. It seems to me that these kind of actions actually ensure the polar opposite end result. Ben is deliberately printing tons of dollars, shipping them overseas and taking foreign currency in exchange in order to supposedly facilitate a more liquid, lower interest lending facility for US dollar-based loans. This is not part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate nor does it seem as though it could be a constitutionally sound policy.

When Ben was asked about the Federal Reserve’s opposition to an audit of their programs and balance sheet, he responded by alluding that interest rates would rise if there was any attempt to oversee the actions of the Fed. This is a veiled threat and can not be taken as anything less. Our economy is now being held hostage.

The crisis in the United States is reaching a silent boiling point in the struggle between the citizenry and the largest banks.  Revealed today in a story breaking across various news agencies, the United States has potentially indebted itself by nearly $24 trillion dollars through various bail out programs since 2007.  This is effectively bankrupting our entire country and if allowed to continue will ruin any chance of a sustainable recovery.  We are already on the heels of a major change in how we live, work and save money.

Debtor nation

If this amount of debt is incurred on a federal level it is twice our GDP.  That is completely out of bounds with any kind of spending plan that is sensible.  It puts the creditors of our nation in to a very difficult position, because they understand we’re debasing the world’s reserve currency to buy our way out of a financial catastrophe instead of facing the pain and making constructive changes.  These $24T in financial commitments could literally strangle our nation’s economy for decades.

Some things never change

Wall Street is back to its old tricks.  Goldman is making “record profits” amid a crisis where its competition conveniently perished under the watch of former CEO Hank Paulson as Treasury Secretary.  Now Morgan Stanley is repackaging subprime mortgage debt as AAA while JP Morgan, Barclays and others are leasing supertankers full of crude oil.  All of these actions are benefiting the banks at the expense of tax payer dollars that provided the cushion so that these companies could continue to sustain their existence.

Time to wake up

Most of the time people turn off the TV, put down the newspaper or close their browser when they encounter the intentionally dull financial news.  They want to focus on the here and now, not projections of profit or bailout recapitalization.  It’s understandable that in a functional society people would have the luxury of ignoring the banking system because they have some implicit trust, a notion of safety, about where their money sleeps.  This relationship should no longer be taken for granted and the institutions holding the dollars we cherish as our future savings may be participating in the largest, most sophisticated power and money grab the world has ever seen.

A repeat performance of the bear market rally breakdown seems to be in the works now.  The first downside target is 875, then I believe we could see a large sell off to around 775-800 if that level breaks.  After that a retest of the lows is almost certain.  The image below illustrates the pattern on a three month / one day bar chart.  There may be some support at the 200 day moving average around current levels as the market is oversold.  A bounce before continuing downward is not out of the question.

With the last legs of this rally really more of a sideways trade on very light volume, we’re starting to see some signs that a rolling over process has begun.  While there is plenty of reasons to be a bear, the most compelling reason to be a bull was the notion that things were getting worse at a slower pace.  The idea was that we overcorrected to the downside in March, facing what appeared to be a depression, and having (at least temporarily) taken that off the table, we see very attractive valuations.

We’ve had a nice run already

After about 40% off the bottom, I think we can say the valuations have gotten ahead of themselves.  In addition, there are no signs of an earnings-led recovery or any real green shoots that indicate we’ll be seeing a pronounced rebound in the economy.  Most of the optimism is coming from China, which seems to be hoarding commodities for its own hedging game against the falling US dollar.  While hunger for raw materials is good for the markets, if it is not a genuine appetite that stems from growth, but rather a desire to build a materials portfolio for the Chinese government, then much of the optimism in energy, materials and other related sectors is overdone.

The biggest driver is not behind the wheel

The consumer is facing more foreclosures, credit card defaults and an increasingly tight employment picture.  This is not the atmosphere that is condusive towards a consumer-led recovery.  Consumers probably have 5-10 years before they can start to lever up again on their credit.  Other emerging markets are attempting to build consumer economies, and facing tremendous headwinds from populations who treasure thrift rather than spending.  The appetite for material possessions is not nearly as strong nor are earnings per capita elsewhere enough to sustain the vacuum left behind by the American and European economic implosion.

Greenflation not back, yet

Green energy is a promising sector when crude oil is above $100.  Right now the motivation is just not as strong with consumers or companies to make big moves in to more environmentally sustainable energy.  I believe that once inflation makes energy less affordable the appetite for green energy will increase.  This may be a while off depending on how fast the global economy can pick up the slack left behind from the last bubble.

Climb a plateau once its peaked…

So where is the catalyst for the next rally?  What could drive equities higher?  The only way we’re going to see a tremendous rally from here is if we see much more currency debasement and intentional inflation.  That kind of manipulation could continue to lead markets higher, but at the cost of the currency that equities are priced in therefore nullifying much of the gains.

Or fall right off?

I think the market is setting up to fall.  I’m not so sure we’ll retest the lows or not, but I do think we’ll see some more selling as fundamentals begin to play a center role in the stock market again.  On a technical note, we may be building a pretty significant head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500.  Today’s action seems to confirm the right shoulder.  We could see a retest of 875 or lower if it continues to play out.

Global systemic risk is back in fashion, as Blackrock buys Barclays Global Investors, creating a combined $2.8T balance sheet, much larger than the US Federal Reserve.  If this newly formed titan ever had large its own liquidity problem it could threaten to once again bring down the world financial system.

Of course Blackrock has a number of curious aspects to it as well.  Merrill Lynch had a 50% stake which Bank of America gobbled up along with Merrill in a backroom deal with Uncle Sam.  Now Bank of America has a large (supposedly non-voting and non-influential) stake in this behemoth.  I believe this is cause for concern, because among other duties, Blackrock helps the Federal Reserve manage some of its assets and performs consulting as well.

How does Bank of America have a stake in a company that has some influence on the value of its assets in the eyes of what is supposed to be an independent central bank?  This question has come up in congressional hearings and been asked by pundits as well as traders.

Apparently there’s absolutely no rules to the game as long as the biggest banks survive.. at least for now.

Now that we’re off the 925 S&P 500 support area we see a rolling top forming on major indexes here and around the world.  A pullback in equities and commodities may occur as a result, providing opportunity to further short the market and gain more exposure to commodities during buying opportunities.

I believe the short term target could be as low as 900 on the S&P and interim if we see a large correction we could retest the 875 area.  The main determinant factors here will be the news flow, economic data and hunger for raw materials.

The correction could also remove the possibility of the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average, which fund managers are looking for as further indication that the market is worth buying in to at these levels.

Bulls continue to cling on the notion of green shoots, but the green shoots look more like poison ivy according to many traders who are closely tuned in to the technicals and fundamentals.

The flight from US treasuries, equities and the dollar is a category five hurricane against the once safe haven.  Is it fear of hyperinflation or just a ripple of the recession?

Speculation is increasing that the US will not be able to pay off its mounting debt and it is showing in the markets.  Most currencies, especially commodity driven ones like the Australian and Canadian dollar, are rallying.  The US treasury bonds are selling off at an alarming rate.  The stock market is starting to either consolidate or make a larger move down.

If the hyperinflation hits and creates a panic, this type of activity will increase markedly.  If instead this is a ripple from the recession tarnishing the confidence of other markets it is still a negative because it shows that central banks around the world are not supporting US debt to the degree that they did in the past during a time when the US is creating more debt than ever before.

The implications are vast and will have an effect on purchasing power, employment, wages and the types of jobs available moving forward.

What do silver, the Australian and Canadian dollars all have in common? They should all be considered good inflation hedges for US dollar-based portfolios.  The Australian and Canadian dollar are commodity-based currencies, because their underlying economies are very much driven by the production of commodities such as gold, silver, oil, industrial metals, etc.  Silver itself is very undervalued against ever increasing real world demand for coinage, jewelry, electrical and chemical applications.  The combination of all three assets, in two different asset classes (foreign currencies and commodities) provide strong upside as the dollar weakens and world growth comes more from emerging economies than industrial economies.

The Australian dollar ETF can be bought through symbol FXA, the Canadian dollar ETF through FXC and silver through SLV.  I currently have holdings in all three assets and advise those concerned about inflation to consider what their long term investment goals are and how these assets may or may not fit in to their strategy.

The consumer confidence number bounced significantly.  This is generally  supposed to be positive to the currency, but because the US dollar has become a carry trade currency through the zero interest rate policy, now  good economic news has an inverse effect on the US dollar, moving it lower.

It’s hard to believe that consumers are spending more money when their 401ks, house values and wages are down significantly, unemployment is rising and even if they are spending money retailers have marked down items so low their margins are razor thin.

The problem is that when there is bad macro news, such as the rumor of the US losing its AAA rating, the US dollar sinks, too.  US equities can’t continue to rally if the currency continues to sink at this rate.  All of the consumers will lose their purchasing power

As the rally appears to be running on fumes at this point, I’d like to say that I was a little early saying to sell it before, but one never can trust a bear market rally.  That’s what it still seems like we’re dealing with, too.  The technicals were powerful during the 8 week surge, but we do not yet have a Dow theory buy signal (need a close above 9125) or a break above the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500.  Now the charts are beginning to look more exhausted as the overbought conditions are worked out.  Longer term the trend remains down as we seem to continue with the 10+ year double top formation playing out on the S&P 500.

Banks led the rally up and now they are beginning to give way as fundamentals point to a more pessimistic picture than the prior trading action of their equities might suggest.  While I do feel that the substantive cash injections, ZIRP cheap liquidity and stimulus have filled part of the vacuum left by the implosion of Lehman and the deleveraging process, there is simply too much enthusiasm around when this alleged recovery is due to transpire.

We are quite literally in the midst of a complete reinvention of how the world does business and in that process there likely will be further dislocations and market abberations before settling in to a U or L-shaped recovery — either economic destiny will be determined by the shape of fiscal policy and whether insolvent institutions are infact allowed to fail or continue indefinitely as “zombies”.  Unregulated derivatives markets must be brought in to the light and fully regulated in order to prevent credit default swaps and other leveraged contracts from contributing to widespread system disruptions.

This turning point has been marked by the downfall of the US as the financial capital of the world.  A slow unwinding process that in the decades to come will be much more apparent than it is now.  This is the unfortunate consequence of being the largest debt bearing nation in the world whose currency is quickly losing popularity as reserves for central bankers around the world.  The unraveling is going to degrade the quality of life for Americans and boost domestic inflation considerably.

If nothing can be done to restore confidence by regulating the shadow markets and unraveling the insolvent institutions, then this trying period shall last quite a while.  At this point I don’t feel the actions of the US government or the Federal Reserve have been constructive to that end.  That is why I feel the rally is largely unsustainable and right now we are in a frothy period where short positions in equities and long positions in foreign currencies may be appropriate to consider putting back on the table.

Disclosure: Short US equities, long foreign currencies

Much of the rally has been predicated on increased optimism because the recession may be slowing. Many recessions have double dip bottoms and most bull markets are not led by the same groups that led the last bull market.

In addition, the US still has a lot of problems with the deleveraging consumer, potentially insolvent banks and a financial system whose accounting has reverted back to off balance sheet trickery and mark to make believe models.

How can we believe the rally is real if it is within the context of one of the sharpest downturns the world has ever seen, where the fundamental macroeconomic picture has not improved and nor has there emerged a true cyclical leader for the next bull market?