At this point there is some distortion between energy and metals which have a direct relationship as energy must be expended to mine the metals. usually the ratio is 10x the price of a barrel of oil for an ounce of gold, but now it’s been in a range of 12.5x-15x.
Either oil is very undervalued (which is unlikely) or gold is overbought at these levels.
Today’s close of the stock markets and oil seems to indicative of a risk repricing that began last week.
960 (around the 50 day moving average) on the S&P 500 and $65 a barrel on light sweet crude are my downside targets short term, but if either breaks we could trade to much lower support levels.
In addition, when examining the huge sell off in natural gas prices, it’s near certain that energy has more negative catalysts than positive because industrial utilization continues to lag despite the green shoots propaganda that we keep hearing.
Finally, there are a growing number of bears calling for a shake out of March’s lows coming this fall because of a new leg down in commercial real estate that will bleed liquidity out of the equity markets and REITs.
