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27Apr

Fedflationary fabrications

Alex Bonds, Commodities, Forex, News, Stocks 0 comment

These press conferences with Federal Reserve Chairman Dr. Bernanke are becoming more amusing as of late:

“We, the Federal Reserve, have spent 30 years building up credibility for low and stable inflation [..]” – Ben. S Bernanke

Really?  On what basis of calculating inflation can one say with a straight face that over the last 30 years inflation has been tame or for that matter stable?  Let’s take a look at the 30 year chart of the CRB index, which represents a broad view of commodities as priced in US dollars.

30 year CRB index chart showing high inflation and unstable prices

30 year CRB index

Clearly inflation is not under control.  However, if the above chart is not enough to make one skeptical of the Fed’s latest remarks, then here’s a 30 year chart of the US dollar index, the currency in which prices are set for all the items we purchase in the United States (and other countries using or pegged to the US dollar).

30 year US dollar index chart

30 year US dollar index

What one can gather from these charts is that we’re experiencing 30 years of a weakening dollar and extremely volatile commodities prices.  Our central bank has the audacity to tell us that inflation is under control, and that in essence one should ignore gas prices, food prices and the prices of other goods which have surged over the last few decades (because all of the official inflation statistics ignore said prices).

I’ve always been a skeptic of the Fed’s press releases and these conferences, but this statement alone is enough to make one’s head spin when put in to context with the charts above.  I believe instead that the Fed is claiming inflation is under control as a guise to give them the flexibility to perform more easing should the European contagion come home, or if our own sovereign debt issues begin to become more apparent to bond investors.

Without quantitative easing, twisting (and lots of shouting) our markets would likely have higher Treasury yields, lower equity prices — but people would be enjoying lower prices on food and energy.  With the labor market stagnating and the overall economic picture still quite dismal, one has to wonder whether the Fed’s dual mandate of encouraging employment and maintaining stable prices has been abandoned in favor of recklessly supporting the financial system at large, and more specifically US Treasury bond and equity prices.  It certainly seems to be the case when objective data is reviewed from a macroeconomic perspective.

30Nov

Why fixed income investing is on life support

Alex Bonds, Economy, Forex, Stocks 0 comment

The current financial paradigm is crumbling beneath us.  This is not a temporary disruption, it is a meltdown.  All of the mechanisms that drive paper markets are being eroded, and more and more market participants are being, quite literally, robbed — and without consequence.

Income generation through investing comes down to a troubling set of problems, because revenue comes from the interest yield on various debt-based instruments.  Which debt does one buy during a credit crisis?  Obviously not European debt.  Corporate debt is suspect — and when the market is this high if it takes a turn for the worse corporate debt could easily take a 30-50% haircut overnight.

US debt has incredibly low yields and has been in a 30 year bubble, suggesting that it could collapse if inflation becomes a problem.

Other countries currencies seem dangerously manipulated by central banks, so it is hard to build a portfolio of high yield currencies without risking a monetary crisis wiping a large portion of the value out.

That leaves high dividend stocks, which are, just like every other paper asset, overvalued, dangerously dependent on the stock market continuing to move forward — and what would cause the stock market to continue to move higher here?  The only thing that could is a large scale global bailout which would be highly inflationary and bad for all debt (income) instruments — with the exception of a select few Euro bonds.  Bonds so toxic that they blew up MF Global and caused a global liquidity vacuum.  And let’s not forget about Dexia, who also had a lot of Euro debt exposure.  This highly rated European financial passed all its stress tests and subsequently collapsed, needing a bailout.

Any investment in ‘income’ instruments is highly speculative and dangerous.  Look at the charts for varying income instruments: sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, junk bonds, high dividend stocks, high yielding currencies — then tell me if based on just the technical analysis, they seem like good investments.

Then add to it the macroeconomic foray.  The likelihood of either a global banking system disruption or a highly inflationary bailout are both negative for most income instruments.

If we have a disruption, income instruments will crash in value very, very quickly.  No stop loss order will adequately protect against a waterfall collapse.  If instead we have a global bailout, money will rush out of income instruments in to speculative assets.

Most retirement age Americans are struggling with this problem.  Millions are unable to get yield, which forces them in to dangerous assets.  Investors have to be patient and wait for the opportunity to come — rather than get destroyed by the rush to the exits that is almost certain at this point.

21Sep

Fed Wednesday – Policy Outlook

Alex Bonds, Business, Finance, Metals, Stocks, Technical Analysis 0 comment

I don’t want to be right about my of my dire predictions, but all signs point to a significant global slowdown:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904353504576566142076103776.html

The Fed is coming out at 2:15 pm to announce the results of their policy meeting.  Many expect a variation of the 1960s “Operation Twist” where they sell their short-dated maturities and buy long-dated maturities:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/just-2-hours-left-until-announcement-here-complete-summary-what-everyone-wall-street-expects

If they were to do this, it would actually hurt the large and regional banks because they would be borrowing at a higher rate and lending at a lower rate — but it may help the consumer, at least short term, buy making mortgages and revolving debt less expensive:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903285704576560823162096888.html

They downside is that any more monetization of debt will likely be perceived as inflationary and send speculators in to commodities (including energy and agriculture) which could cause a rise in consumer prices.

I think they may even have to perform some more aggressive monetary policy measures given that the US dollar money market funds in Europe are drying up — and the EU banks are in bigger trouble than our banks:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294705-many-european-banks-would-be-bankrupt-if-they-carried-assets-at-actual-market-values

If they announce nothing new, which is in my opinion extraordinarily unlikely given that this is a longer than usual Fed meeting (something we hadn’t seen since the last rounds of QE) I think there will be a significant market sell-off and a head and shoulders topping pattern may play out:

http://mootrades.com/2011/09/17/head-and-shoulders-setup-on-major-indices/

Whatever is done by the Fed is only a short term piecemeal solution to a broader, more structural problem with bank and sovereign balance sheets — and in my opinion it only delays any real resolution.

15Sep

Central bank intervention for profit retention?

Alex Banks, Bonds, Business, Finance, Metals, Stocks, Technical Analysis 0 comment

Today we read about Kweku Adoboli, the UBS equities trader that allegedly went rogue and lost the firm $2B in Q3 profits.  We also learned about the ECB effectively using extraordinary measures to prop up insolvent EU banks.  A rumor also floated through the blogosphere that Mr. Adoboli was shorting large amounts of precious metals, specifically silver, through ETFs.  What one has to wonder, given the timing of these events and the downdraft in metals prices today, is if the ECB and/or SNB is helping to support UBS by pushing down metals prices so they can exit the short position with less of a loss to report on their upcoming earnings announcement.

This sounds like a conspiracy theory, right?  I would have thought so, too, many years ago.  However, given the recent and direct Swiss central bank intervention in the Franc and precious metals markets, the dire situation in the EU threatening the monetary union and its currency was well as the threat of a global double dip recession, it seems more than possible that central banks are beginning to exercise their power in the precious metals markets more overtly.

Psychologically it’s a very effective technique.  Hit metals hard on days that they would ordinarily rally to push weak (see leveraged) hands out of the market.  Try to inflict as much technical damage as possible (although at this point no severe damage has been inflicted — but if this continues it will be).

The question is how long could such manipulation last, if that is in fact what’s going on here?  I would personally doubt that such interventions can have staying power — at least not yet.  The SNB hit on precious metals did not last very long, and when priced in Francs gold rallied to a record high.  The previous sell-offs we’ve seen have produced a large amount of buying appetite around $39.00.

Today that seemed to be the case.  I was buying some silver CEFs (closed end funds) when the price hit $39.49.  I felt that a lot of buyers would begin to bite with more conviction as that has been the bottom end of the technical trading ranging silver has been within for the past few weeks.

There is some chance it could break down to $36.00, of course, but with a stop around $38.75, I’ll take a small downside risk given that the upside potential seems to be  about 33% in the short to intermediate term.  Good luck investing and trading, everyone.  And be careful out there.  The sharks are circling.

 

09Sep

The coming global debt-driven depression

Alex Bonds, Business, Economy, Finance, Metals, Stocks 0 comment

Reality begins to set in, which inspires panic. Frantic selling across various speculative assets brings prices drastically lower. Retirements and pensions wiped out. Paper investments made effectively worthless. Sound like a repeat of 2008-2009?

The American Nightmare

This horrifying scenario is coming to fruition not because the economy is dipping back in to recession — the fact is without the bailouts, deficit spending and stick saves by the Fed, we’ve been in a depression since late 2008. All of the papering over fraud was about kicking the can down the road rather than fixing the underlying economic, fiscal and monetary imbalances.

Zero interest rate policy combined with reckless fiscal measures have sealed the fate of the US markets and the greater global economy. By implementing such a robust framework without fixing any of the underlying problems on bank balance sheets, in various governments forward debt loads or in household debt we are now looking at repeating the kind of volatility we saw in late 2008 to early 2009, but worse yet there are far greater consequences to a significant economic dislocation. Consequences that were entirely avoidable had the authorities, corporate leaders, banking executives and individual households of the world looked at deleveraging more aggressively and taking the bitter pill that is a brief, but sharp depression so that the excess could be cleared out in favor of rebuilding a more stable and sustainable economy.

Past the Point of No Returns

Now we’re nearing the cliff. The drop-off that is a near mathematical certainty given that many countries governments are reaching their upward debt limit (that is to say no party but their respective central banks are willing to buy their debt). This includes the US, Japan and much of Europe — countries that were once economic superpowers are being reduced to beggar thy neighbor debtors, hat in hand, begging for handouts.

The demographic issues in these areas may differ, but the fundamental economic, monetary and fiscal problems are all too similar. Persistent high unemployment, a highly leveraged financial sector, households that are swimming in debt (with the exception of perhaps Japan) and stock markets that are losing a decade+ in any form of gains.

Worse yet, the forecasts being foisted upon the public are overly optimistic, full of fluffy economic growth predictions that are impossible to achieve. That means that the growth which was necessary to service debt burdens and keep the overly extended economies of the world lurching forward will not occur and thus leaves a much more dire scenario. One of sovereign debt defaults, crashing stock markets, currency crises and an atmosphere of higher unemployment and more civil unrest.

Caution: Debt-Driven Depression Ahead

Let’s look towards the possible future by examining one country that’s already where many will be in the coming months and years ahead. Greece’s stock market is down 85% from its peak, their 1 year government bonds are trading at an absurd yield of about 97% and there is talk of a full scale default as early as this weekend. The Greek people have been protesting, rioting and the unemployment rate by modest measures is 16%. This is a depression, not a recession. While the media is largely ignoring the severity of the crisis, those within Greece are all too familiar with the situation. One that has the potential to become significantly worse before any improvements may happen.

All of the bailouts for Greece have only managed to make the situation worse, because they piled on debt Greece could not pay off while forcing Greece to sell off the few productive assets it has to foreign parties. The combination of these factors ensure a severe economic contraction.

Much of the rest of Europe, with perhaps the exception of Germany, Norway, Finland, Switzerland and Sweden, face the same dilemma: too much debt, too little economic growth. In the United States we face the same crisis, which has only been temporarily offset by the dollar’s reserve currency status — a privilege we may not enjoy for much longer here given the incompetent and dangerous monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. By Bill Gross’ measurement the United States has $75 trillion in unfunded liabilities. That is approximately a 500% debt-to-GDP ratio (over twice that of Japan). Some even say Gross’ measurement is too conservative and the number could be closer to $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities. The fact remains that there is no mathematical or economic scenario where this debt becomes serviceable or sustainable.

The problem is simple, though the solution has been muddled by short-sighted piecemeal bailout attempts. A debt crisis cannot be solved by piling on more debt. It is impossible to achieve economic equilibrium by bailing out corporations that do not know how to manage risk properly. Consumers, who account for 70% of US GDP, are being largely ignored and yet are experiencing significant harm from this crisis. Instead these insolvent banks need to be unwound, brought through bankruptcy and their speculative subsidiaries and divisions need to be completely separated and spun off from their depository and lending functions. We learned this lesson from the Great Depression, but somehow forgot it in the last decade as banks were once again allowed to recklessly speculate with money they did not have.

Modern Banking Is Anything But

Let us remember that banks should really only function as a basic utility for depositing funds and matching those that wish to lend money with those that are seeking interest on savings. That is the vary essential function of a bank. The speculative gambling that occurs on Wall Street has no place in conventional banking and it should never have been allowed to re-join the conventional banking industry.

Those who intentionally defrauded their clients, the government and employed criminal tactics to profit should be indicted, prosecuted and hopefully incarcerated for their crimes against society. Those reckless, greedy and immoral enough to bring down the entire world economy so that they can profit from its artificial rise and subsequent demise are the true threats to a prosperous future. So long as they remain in power we will not see any trust return to the markets nor shall we see any glimpse of true economic recovery. After all, if the rule of law breaks down, there is not much left to keep people from essentially avoiding the entire gulag casino that Wall Street has become.

We must unite around the world and demand that the crooks are prosecuted, the insolvent banks are unwound and that we, the people are not robbed blind to continue to fund these morally and financially bankrupt institutions. It is the only way that we can begin to move forward and start to rebuild our respective countries.

09Nov

Is the rally topping out or just starting?

Alex Bonds, Commodities, Forex, Futures, Stocks, Technical Analysis 0 comment

We’ve seen a significant gain since the bottom in March of 2009, up about 80% since those 666 S&P 500 lows.  Now the market is facing significant resistance, even after the massive $600 billion QE2 plan to inject more liquidity.  The resistance comes both in the US dollar beginning to find trend line support and the S&P 500 showing potential resistance at what could become a double top formation.

First let’s have a look at the long term dollar chart:

US dollar long term chart

It’s clear that the US dollar, despite a large drop in recent months, is beginning to find support at the trend line formed from previous lows. If this trend holds it could bolster the ailing US currency and provide room for not only a short term reversal, but some significant appreciation on the back of Europe’s woes and a correction in the commodity currencies. On the other side, the dollar is seeing significant headwinds towards sustainable appreciation because of the unsustainable forward looking debt load of the US government combined with the massive stimulus and easing programs.

Now let’s have a look at the S&P 500 chart:

We see the potential for a double top formation in the index around 1220. If this level can not be broken to the upside then we have some serious downside potential to contend with in the US stock market. The rally of around 15% over the last two months indicates that many are confident in putting their money in to equities, rather than bonds, and with that a lot of speculative stocks have seen impressive gains. But another side of this rally is that it has largely been supported by extremely loose monetary policy, a “Bernanke put,” is what many are calling it, meaning that there’s no reason to buy protection (or put options) on your investments because the Fed will be there to prop up the market.

This is an inflection point. It has the potential to decide the direction of where many different markets, including currencies, commodities, equities and bonds, will be trading for the next several months ahead. Should the dollar fail its trend line support and the S&P break to the upside of the resistance around 1220 we’ll see a massive rally in other currencies, commodities and equities. If instead we see the dollar hold firm and appreciate against other currencies, reinforcing the trend line support and the S&P breaks down at the aforementioned resistance level then we could see a daunting correction in other currencies, equities and commodities.

All we can do now is watch, wait and act accordingly…

16Aug

Konnichiwa! Welcome to Japan 2.0

Alex Bonds, Economy 0 comment

The 30 year US Treasury bond is below 4%, the 10 year US Treasury bond is below 3% and the 5 year US treasury bond is below 2%.  All incredibly low yields that are indicative of a major flight to safe haven assets (along with gold’s continued move upwards), no confidence in equities and lower interest rates across the board for savers.

This is a clear indication of deflation taking hold and it is a very dangerous sign for other asset classes, such as stocks, real estate, commodities and junk bonds.

The present situation is quite familiar.  Just look East to Japan and you’ll find the same deflationary winds have been blowing for close to 20 years now.  Easy money zero interest rate policy, a habit of hiding bad bank assets and an economy in decline after a massive real estate implosion all facilitated incredibly low bond yields.  Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is now 200%, and as the US ramps up its debt in response to our ailing economy the question becomes, “Why are we embarking down the same path of self-destruction?”

We are becoming Japan 2.0.  A once prosperous industrial economy that is attempting to stave off depression with shortsighted economic policy that amounts to nothing more than “kicking the can down the road” or pushing off our problems in to the future and by doing so making the problems we face larger and more threatening.  The only way out is to stop hiding our bad debt, start forcing insolvent institutions to close and let free market capitalism work (that is to say, let the bankrupt go bankrupt rather than having the tax payers’ foot the bill for their mistakes).

Otherwise we face many lost decades as a result of our policy makers’ reckless disregard for the future.

09May

European Union losing strength

Alex Bonds, Business, Economy, Energy 0 comment

Update: The Fed is moving in to further appease Europe’s ailing banks by restarting the US dollar currency swap program they used during the last financial crisis.

As the EU moves to establish a 750 billion Euro bailout slush fund, political opposition in Germany and the UK is growing and the problems within the EU may be getting more serious.

Hiding the truth

EU politicians claim the fund is being created to defend against the “wolf pack” of banks betting against the Euro and EU sovereign debt.  They say they will defend the Euro at “any cost”.

The reality is that Greece misrepresented its debt, hiding it with the help of Goldman Sachs.  This fraud triggered the downfall of Greece’s bonds once it was discovered.  Other EU countries are now struggling to get their house (of cards) in order.

The contagion could spread

Greece is struggling, if not failing, and with it may come a domino effect. The other “PIIGS” (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) may also begin their descent on debt woes and poor economic performance.

Even the UK is not immune to these problems as its economy is in bad shape and the debt keeps mounting.  The UK government is facing uncertainty as recent elections delivered a hung parliament, the first such event since 1974.

Germany’s Merkel has potentially exhausted all her political favors as she offered the German taxpayers’ money to Greece in the form of a debt bailout.  Her party has suffered significant losses in recent elections as a result.

Anger grows

Meanwhile, in Greece, where severe austerity measures are being forced on to a weary population, the result has been much civil unrest and violence in the streets.

There have been several deaths, property has been destroyed and no compromise has been reached to temper the rage of the population.

No end in sight

The EU is in a panicked state.  There isn’t any meaningful resolution within reach as they frantically create more debt in a naive attempt to solve a debt crisis.  When other member countries begin to falter the volatility of their bonds, stock markets and currencies may increase dramatically.

Such a significant disruption will spread beyond the EU to the US and Asia.  These headwinds are blowing strong now and could jeopardize the very fragile global economic recovery.

That is, if you believe there was a recovery in the first place.  So much for the Euro being the next world reserve currency.

13Mar

It’s time to default on our debt to China

Alex Bonds, Economy, Finance 0 comment

Let’s face it, China is not our friend. They never have been. Their government regularly engages in military and industrial espionage against our interests. Hacking in to thousands of American companies, government installations and harvesting sensitive information for their benefit are not the acts of an ally. Neither is attempting to harm our people, interests at home and abroad as well as our economy.

The Chinese government is anxious to usurp US influence by using the bonds they own (about $1 trillion worth) to undermine US interests. In the past they’ve used bond purchases as a way to keep rates artificially low so they can exploit the consumption-oriented nature of our debt-ridden economy and now they’re threatening to use these bond sales as a tool to manipulate our government’s policies.

For example, the US sells arms to Taiwan and China sells bonds to “punish” our government. The Chinese government also reneged on energy derivatives contracts on behalf of their state-owned energy companies because the bets simply didn’t go their way. Are we really going to tolerate this childish economic warfare and these dishonest business practices?

I’m sure most people have read about the well publicised hacking of Google, but that was just the tip of a massive iceberg. China’s government has hacked in to countless Fortune 500 firms to steal valuable trade secrets and other intellectual property. They also gained access to sensitive US government communications and intelligence information.

It’s time that we show the Chinese government that we are not their ally any more than they are our ally. This dispute has gone on far too long and it has resulted in an economic catastrophe. We are losing jobs, wealth and our sovereignty is being eroded. And for what? So we can have children’s toys tainted with poison and poor quality consumer products? Why should we put up with this nonsense from a country that has nothing but ill intentions for our government and more importantly for our people?

America didn’t dig itself in to this recession alone. We had help and there is plenty of blame go to around the world. We are supposed to believe that China is helping us out of this mess, but China’s interests are only within making their communist regime more powerful and domineering in world affairs. Do we really want to see this goal come to fruition? China is not a world leader. They are more of a string pulling, manipulative bully.

The Chinese government censors the Internet trying to prevent its citizenry from communicating with each other or finding out the truth about past events like Tiananmen Square and the repeated massacres of the Tibetan people. They also monitor forums, e-mails and chat lines in real-time attempting to squelch any civil unrest with brutal force and often times indefinite detention or worse.

How can we put our trust in to a country that has absolutely no freedom? If you dare speak out against the government they’ll throw you in prison and you have a good chance of being executed, having your organs harvested for sale or being forced in to slave labor.

Their propaganda machine portrays the Chinese government as godlike and faultless. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Their government is a one party autocracy with no accountability or checks and balances against the corruption that is prevalent amongst government officials.

It’s time to ask yourself, is it truly worth sacrificing everything we believe in and stand for just to have lower interest rates? I don’t think so. Let’s show the Chinese government we mean business and tell them their actions against our interests have violated international law, constitute acts of aggression, if not war and we will retaliate by invalidating the debt that they own. In addition, let’s stop supporting this war against America by refusing to purchase Chinese made products. We must derail the money train to Beijing before its too late.

26Feb

Significant headwinds ahead for US economy

Alex Bonds, Business, Commodities, Economy, Finance, Forex, Metals, Stocks 0 comment

I feel we are facing significant headwinds moving forward because of the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the refusal to address the core problems in our financial system and the incredibly opaque derivatives market that has yet to be regulated or even cleared on open exchanges.

The root of the problem

To expand on the first point of loose monetary policy, from my own research I have gathered that the government has put at least $12T, possibly up to $30T worth of guarantees, backstops and other forms of insurance against the prospect of another meltdown. In addition the Federal Reserve has, in my opinion, illegally bailed out AIG through programs they are not authorized to participate in. These actions and other measures have transferred the risk of collapse from the private sector to the US government and to the Federal Reserve.

Interest rates remain below 1% in a range of 0.00% to 0.25%. Combine that with the infusion of US dollars the Federal Reserve has given to other central banks around the world and we have literally created a carry trade scenario. Not only are we repeating the mistakes of Japan, but we are going down a path where should a geopolitical event or other significant negative catalyst occur the repatriation of dollars could create a collapse across nearly every asset class.

Risk grows as stability wanes

This environment that has been created to engender a recovery is not only unsustainable, but it has created more risks than had existed beforehand:

#1 Should another market panic occur where AIG’s credit default swaps are due, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve must cough up the difference. This would lead to another series of bailouts and funneling cash to foreign and domestic banks at the tax payer’s expense on bets that never should have been made and were downright idiotic.

#2 Big banks are BIGGER now than before: JPM, BAC, WFC, USB and others are now larger and present a much more significant risk to the system should, say for example, one of their mark to make believe off balance sheet assets implode — potentially bringing down the entire world financial system, again.

#3 The stress tests were fraudulent and did not expose the off balance sheet asset liquidity vacuum these banks are suffering from. Papering over fraud never leads to a sustainable rebound.

#4 Tax receipts are down across the board – how can counties, cities, states and the Federal government hope to control deficit spending if they are not collecting as much in taxes? They can’t sell bonds forever, bringing me to my next point.

#5 Commercial real estate and corporate bonds are headed towards a potential implosion in the next few years, with major mall holders filing bankruptcy and many occupants of office and retail space vacating as they downsize. Corporations also must refinance their debtload which is ever growing while the global appetite for these bonds is diminishing.

#6 We in the United States are very seriously facing the risk of a sovereign debt default in the future. This prospect is made even more serious by continued bail outs, war spending, entitlements and other programs that are completely unsustainable with our country’s $14T debt burden.

#7 Such a sovereign debt default would lead to a currency collapse and that could engender either an environment of hyperinflation or heavy deflation — all depending on where the chips fall at the end of the day.

Inflation or deflation?

While speculators are now hedging for inflation and shorting the dollar in any way possible, there is another market we must pay close attention to. A market that significantly dwarfs the size of the commodities markets as a whole. That is the US Treasury Bond Market. Last I checked it was $33.5 trillion dollars. I find it interesting that gold is touching $1111.00 an ounce while 10 year bonds are at only 3.625% — who is wrong in this gigantic game of chicken?

Either the folks buying gold are insane to believe inflation is the bogeyman to fear or the much larger, much more influential and liquid bond market is crazy because they obviously fear deflation. Why else would a rational human being buy a bond at 3.625% that they must hold for 10 years? Such an instrument would be less than worthless in an inflationary environment.

First the principle value of the bond erodes as interest rates rise, and secondly the yield would not make up for the rate of inflation. So we are experiencing a financial conundrum right now. Either we are on the verge of a deflationary collapse or a hyperinflationary currency crisis. Which way we’re going to go has not yet been made clear to me because I feel the markets are being propped up, even manipulated.

The most dangerous bubble

Why would I pose such an idea? Let’s start with the P/E of the S&P 500 which is now well over 25 (and was at one point over 100). How can anyone feel that these stocks are reasonably valued with such an absurd P/E? Most of the decrease in P/E from over 100 to over 25 has been from companies downsizing, firing employees, hiding bad assets and not organic growth. In the current global macroeconomic environment there’s no feasible way earnings can catch up, so in my opinion we’re already in a bubble.

Bubbles of the past were not as dangerous because the US government never had such a large stake in the market. Now we’re talking about a situation where if the credit, bond, currency and/or stock markets implode, so does our sovereign debt and currency potentially.

Investing is now speculation

Investing in this environment is difficult at best. During the March panic I was a buyer in the high S&P 600s of just about any material, technology, financial and energy stock I could find, but once we got to the 900s and I saw P/Es jump beyond levels I felt were fair valuations I became a seller of my holdings. I also invested some in to silver, foreign currencies and other commodities during the March lows, but also have since taken a lot of those profits off the table.

We are in a very risky area for people to be entering the market. I don’t feel these lofty levels are sustainable nor do I think the valuations are rational. I don’t know when the rally will end, but I do know that any parabolic move usually ends very badly and any time there has been a carry trade in the history of money it has ended painfully for all the speculators who did not exit in time.

Another collapse coming?

In closing I will say that before Rome’s collapse the government was shaving gold and silver coins down to create more currency. They also had a severe debt crisis. The shaving and continued spending led to awful inflation that eventually catalyzed the empire’s downfall.

History is being made every day and the decisions are going to shape the face of America’s future. It is imperative that we start to take our medicine (meaning we must face the financial problems instead of ignoring them) and deal with the overwhelming burden of debt before it swallows up everything left.