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Caution! Market crash could be imminent

Alex — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 19:59:03 +0000

With growing uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis, and the contagion spreading to much larger sovereigns, such as Italy, we now see risk aversion back on the table. US markets are down over 3%, the headlines seem to be getting …

News recap for Monday, Oct 3rd

Alex — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 20:50:55 +0000

Today was an exciting day for global markets. Below you’ll find a recap of today’s most important news. We are not anywhere near out of the woods, yet. In fact I think equity markets are bound to get much worse. …

Twist, but don’t shout

Alex — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 18:30:19 +0000

(Updated at 4:25 p.m.) The Federal Reserve announced that it will begin selling shorter term US Treasury securities and use the funds raised to buy in to the 6 to 30 year space. They also indicated more easing in the …

Fed Wednesday – Policy Outlook

Alex — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 17:20:17 +0000

I don’t want to be right about my of my dire predictions, but all signs point to a significant global slowdown: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904353504576566142076103776.html The Fed is coming out at 2:15 pm to announce the results of their policy meeting. Many expect …

Cautiously waiting for the Fed

Alex — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 18:00:13 +0000

The Fed’s two day meeting wraps up tomorrow and markets are eagerly awaiting the release of any policy changes or revisions in the economic outlook from the central bank. Many pundits expect a variation of the 1960s “Operation Twist” where …

Central bank intervention for profit retention?

Alex — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 18:48:44 +0000

Today we read about Kweku Adoboli, the UBS equities trader that allegedly went rogue and lost the firm $2B in Q3 profits. We also learned about the ECB effectively using extraordinary measures to prop up insolvent EU banks. A rumor …

The coming global debt-driven depression

Alex — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 18:31:17 +0000

Reality begins to set in, which inspires panic. Frantic selling across various speculative assets brings prices drastically lower. Retirements and pensions wiped out. Paper investments made effectively worthless. Sound like a repeat of 2008-2009? The American Nightmare This horrifying scenario …

Risk off trade resumes after bounce

Alex — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 21:29:55 +0000

High frequency traders, institutions and retail investors pushed markets lower today, and in recent days, after a brief reprieve from the selling abated in to a liquidation frenzy. Gold made new record highs, silver stayed strong as the commodity complex …

Precious metals outlook and thoughts

Alex — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 07:51:27 +0000

After the violent price swings we’ve seen in silver and the correction in gold, I remain cautiously optimistic that the precious metals sector is now in a bottoming phase and that the nominal paper values disconnect between physical values indicates …

S&P 500 uptrend intact for now

Alex — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 20:09:31 +0000

The S&P 500's uptrend remains intact in a defined channel that found support today, during the stock market sell-off, at the 20 day moving average. The chart below shows the trend channel as well as the moving averages.