The stock market cheered the US central bank’s historic interest rate cut today, surging nearly 5% on the S&P 500 back above 900 to 911.82. The rate cut, combined with continued quantitative easing in Treasury bonds was evident in today’s trading, with a flood out of US dollars in to commodities and other currencies as well as bond yields dropping sharply.
The implications are clear. Inflation will begin in some measure of time, whether it is days, weeks or months. We can see traders already preparing by taking long positions in anything that stands to benefit from the dollar’s fall. Near term we could see the US dollar index fall as low as 72, retesting its prior lows and further confirming the head and shoulders pattern. Commodities and currencies remain attractive buys.
Talks in the US Senate to create a compromise in the auto bail out bill have failed. The US futures, Asian and European equity markets are taking a large hit. The S&P 500 is below 850 pre-market, meaning if we open that way the support level has been breached. Car makers, industrials and energy companies are taking a big hit. These are unprecedented times with big news every day. Keep your eye on the markets!
The US dollar index is forming an all too familiar pattern. This is certainly a result of wreckless monetary policy turning deflation in to a potential stagflationary situation. At this point we recommend purchasing commodities (DYY is a good ETF because it is 2x leveraged and well diversified) and other currencies while there are reasonably priced opportunities. We like the Euro and Yen for this trade.
US dollar index shows head and shoulders pattern
The courageous may consider purchasing commodities stocks as they will likely participate, but the future of the equities market is not necessarily certain as the recession is deepening. Today’s unemployment claims were higher than the expected 525k at 573k. That is a very bad sign that the worst is far from over in terms of how many layoffs we can expect.
Commodities have had tremendous strength for the past few days along with commodities stocks seeing money pour in. This is a potential trend worth watching and it is continuing pre-market today. I will have more detail in a later post.
We are seeing confirmation of a head and shoulders pattern on the NASDAQ composite. This pattern is potentially very destructive to the rally that has taken place thus far. If you are still long this market, a stop slightly below 880 on the S&P or 1550 on the NASDAQ composite is wise, as that seems to be the only level holding back a collapse of the uptrend.
Watch this trend closely because the weekly chart on the NASDAQ composite shows the same pattern forming, meaning we could be retesting our lows in short order if it traces out the right shoulder and breaks below the neckline.
The US Federal Reserve, a private bank, is mulling issuing its own debt. There are several problems with this, one of which is that if the debt is backed by nothing, no one will buy it. If it is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government it needs Congressional approval. Either way, the fundamental story is clear. The Federal Reserve has overextended itself and finds its balance sheet loaded with worthless assets that it can not sell. Karl Denninger has a nice rant about this on his blog that I recommend for your morning reading.