We saw gold drop $14 this week, gold stocks were punished and the market showed a lot of fear and trepidation. With such volatility, you might ask, why do I think gold is good? It’s simple.
That’s right, simplicity. That makes an asset attractive. For the past two years gold has outperformed the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ.
If this isn’t enough for you, however, you should note a few very significant facts:
- Gold trades in US dollars. That means when the dollar is weak, gold is strong. The dollar has strengthened recently because of a “lack of liquidity”. Liquidity usually refers to US dollars flowing in and out of different equities and other asset classes. When it dries up, that means there are less “dollars” (whether in hard or soft form) in the system. This creates a temporary boost in the value of the dollar and temporary weakness in gold.
- India and China are now the world’s largest consumers of gold and their appetites are likely to keep expanding. This creates more demand and pressures the supply, thusly raising prices.
- Gold is the world’s oldest asset and is only gaining in popularity and probably the world’s most liquid asset.
- Hedge funds bought gold as an appreciable asset, not fully understanding the implicit lack of hedging this creates when other funds mimic the same behavior. Gold was oversold this week because of investors having to cover their losses in other assets by selling their profitable investments.
Gold is now ready to rebound and it closed today bullishly up $9.70 in to the weekend, indicating investors are willing to stay in their positions. Gold stocks rebounded positively as did the precious metals indices. The overselling that occurred mostly to cover losses is over and the bargain buying has already begun.
The next step is for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September (or sooner). Once this happens, the dollar will further weaken because of the increased availability of credit (which is essentially virtual money flooding the system). This weakening dollar and increased availability of credit encourages investors to flock back towards gold, stocks and other oversold assets.
It may just be time to buy some gold ETFs (IAU, GLD), futures or stocks (AUY). Have a Mooriffic weekend!