Five year / weekly chart: The US dollar index is testing a major support area of 93. Below that is 84-85. Then 79 comes in to view. Break below 93 could be major. Index is very oversold now, so not surprised to see a pop, and then drop. Momentum could be big on the way down.
Further, in my technical view USD had too much trouble getting much above 100. There’s a solid ceiling in place, while support is breaking down. Lots of potential momentum to the downside given the catalysts: dysfunctional gov’t, enormous debt burden, no signs of Fed effectively tightening or reducing balance sheet in meaningful way, and huge amounts of capital seeking higher returns will likely go to EM and EU.
US equities have a smoothed P/E of approximately 24 whereas emerging markets average P/E is 16. Combine that with the potential of the US dollar uptrend (which started in summer of 2014) unwinding (adding emerging market native currency appreciation potential) and higher yields in emerging markets (an average of about 6.5% based on my math).
It seems like there is an opportunity here, if even only for normalization of valuations. I would suspect that liquidity would continue to be drawn, perhaps at an even faster pace, to EM equities and bonds (as it has been since early 2016) as the US dollar rally unwinds.
Full disclosure: I have been investing in EM equities and bonds since January, 2016 when I felt an enormous opportunity was on the horizon.
The cloud is so massively insecure (by design) that a massive data breach will happen. From a technological perspective, the host (or cloud provider) can read the memory and disk space of every guest (client). Therefore no form of encryption or data protection is actually secure.
With that in mind, all PII, financial and other data stored in the cloud will be breached eventually, if it has not been already. It’s just a matter of a malicious hacker or devious employee at a big cloud company gaining host-level access.
Be careful both trusting your information to the cloud (where you have a choice) as well as investing in companies that are completely cloud-driven. We may see an unexpected upset when the realization that virtualization isn’t nearly as secure as once thought hits.
Google’s earnings revealed that their advertising is worth less (per bid vs Q1), while Facebook also simultaneously said their ad bids are going up. Frankly I’m not so sure that indicates market share / value transfer or more funny accounting.
But I will say this: the world of digital marketing needs an enormous reboot of transparency and quality. Right now if I am advertising on a website and someone clicks my ad, but immediately leaves before seeing any content (less a pixel or two) that counts. That allows automated click farms to partially load content (to save bandwidth) and rapidly click on a multitude of ads around the web to generate revenue for content generators (websites that advertise with Google, Facebook, etc).
That wouldn’t seem like much of a problem, except that 60% of clicks behave that way. That doesn’t even account for what is described as detected click fraud. That’s about 20% of the digital ad spend. So, according to those metrics, about of remaining clicks 20% on ads are viewed by humans and of them perhaps 1%-2% lead to sales.
Now the math gets interesting. Recent studies claim at least $16.4B is lost to click fraud (probably an extremely low ball figure, but let’s roll with it). The smoothed P/E of techs in digital marketing (like Google) is about 33. Google has an average profit margin of about 20%. So $16.4B * 33 = $541.2 billion. 20% of that is $108.24 billion.
That means at least $108.24 billion of market capitalization in this concentrated tech sector is at risk if just click fraud is exposed and eliminated. That doesn’t address the other 60% of ad clicks that are effectively meaningless. That would add another $324 billion of market capitalization at risk. And again, I feel these are low ball figures.
The biggest advertising companies these days are Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Verizon. So I would be most concerned about their long term performance.
Full disclosure: I have a short position against the NASDAQ 100 at the time of writing this article.
Yes, when you give people what they want, they will buy your service. This is not really news, as much as observational humor. Verizon removed these unlimited data plans because they were eager to capitalize on metered plans (whereas heavy users pay a lot more money than they would on an unlimited plan).
I applaud Verizon for listening to their customers and bringing the unlimited data plans back. I’m also happy to see them bringing gigabit (or near gigabit) FiOS to many metropolitan customers on the Atlantic coast.
Full disclosure: No position long or short on Verizon shares, preferred shares or corporate bonds.
Now tell me what you believe the probability is that 83% of every possible person over the age of 15, which I remind you includes a lot of people who have no high-speed Internet connectivity at all, a fair number of people who are effectively incapacitated due to age and more — in other words everyone over the age of 15 that is not in prison — is on Facebook monthly.
The hiatus of MooTrades.com is over. I’m going to be posting regularly again to express my views on the markets — and hopefully provide valuable insights! The content is meant for institutional and accredited investors, but everyone is welcome to indulge themselves. Just be aware that I am not providing any investment advice. This is all for educational and information purposes.
As the dollar surges past 97, toward 100, the rest of the market seems to be catching on that this is a risk off signal. Just about every asset class is selling off today as a result. There’s no single catalyst for the stronger dollar. More a myriad of micro-catalysts:
- The assumption that the EU, UK, Japan and others will continue QE and ZIRP/NIRP as the US Fed raises rates.
- The notion that the US Fed will raise rates at a faster pace (than they have in the last 3 years of jawboning about it).
- The structural economic problems in other economies (making ours seem like the least bad of the bunch).
- Weakness in demand for assets in Japan and Europe.
- Brexit and the follow-on economic impact on UK.
With all of that in mind, I believe that the current leg of the US dollar rally is becoming problematic for the goals of the US Federal Reserve. Indeed, a strengthening dollar on top of rising US Treasury yields is in a way a de facto tightening. Liquidity tightens and lending/margin speculation decreases.
Should the rally strengthen I believe it will create a significant downside catalyst for a multitude of other asset classes. And there is some small chance that it could spiral in to a deflationary headwind should the situation grow out of the control. My opinion is that the dollar strength could be utilized as an entry point in to beaten up asset classes, especially commodities and emerging markets.
Let’s watch carefully and see where the market takes us from here.
The British pound keeps reminding me that once a reserve currency loses the confidence of its participants, volatility becomes a big problem.
Crashing, as it had post-Brexit and most recently during an HFT-triggered 2 minute flash implosion, shows that even the most liquid markets can become bidless.
This is, in a nutshell, why diversification of investments, including across different asset classes and base currencies, is critical.